An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus | Kalzumeus Software
An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus April 21, 2020 By March 22nd, I strongly suspected there was a widespread coronavirus epidemic in Japan. This was not widely believed at the time. I, working with others, conducted an independent research project. By March 25th we had suffic...
This was humbling. And terrifying. If you read one take on coronavirus this week, read this one (in its entirety).
The author put up a hash a month ago with a bold claim and just backed it up with a white paper justifying predictions on the coronavirus in Japan - which were mostly correct and went against prevailing opinion at the time.
This also isn’t your typical tech person piece about a field they have no experience in - this was well researched, experts were consulted, and the author is surprisingly humble.
“If I am wrong, then I will accept any consequences. My actions were my own actions.
This is a very different essay than my typical work. It may be judged to very different standards in very different quarters than usual. Please excuse my need to write more reservedly and participate less in subsequent commentary than I usually would. Some truths have social consequences, acknowledged or not.”Posted on 2020-04-22T05:39:37+0000